Charlie Crist, Independent?

Mar 9, 2010 — Washington Post

Chris Cillizza

In a radio interview this morning with the Washington Times, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) seemed to rule out the possibility of running for the Senate this fall as an independent.

"What I'm doing is running as a Republican," said Crist. "I'm proud of my party, proud to be from the party of Abraham Lincoln, Ronald Reagan, Teddy Roosevelt."

But should he have?

There is considerable disagreement on that point among Florida and national Republicans. Let's unpack the argument.

Polling conducted over the last few months shows that Crist has fallen behind former state House Speaker Marco Rubio in the Republican primary thanks in large part to the abandonment of his candidacy by self-identified conservative voters.

In a January Quinnipiac University poll, Rubio led Crist among conservatives 52 percent to 39 percent while holding an overall 47 percent to 44 percent edge. A survey conducted in February by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio painted an even darker picture for Crist; Rubio led 52 percent to 27 percent among self-identified conservative voters who comprised roughly two thirds of the Republican primary electorate.

And, while the 60 percent to 28 percent lead for Rubio in a new Public Policy Polling survey seems FAR too high, some of the numbers inside the poll have to be concerning for Crist; just one in five Republican voters would like to see him return as governor in 2011 while a meager 14 percent want to see him in the Senate next year.

Other internal polling conducted by Democrats and Republicans that we are aware of casts a similar dismal picture of the race for Crist. Crist's problems with conservative voters that have led him to this point -- most notably his rather public support for President Obama -- aren't the sort of things that they are likely to forget any time soon.

And, in a survey conducted by Research 2000 for the liberal Daily Kos blog, Crist as an independent would clearly be relevant in a general election fight. Crist took 33 percent to 32 percent for Meek and 27 percent for Rubio in a three-way ballot test -- buoyed by his strong favorable rating (58 percent) among independents.

Dave Beattie, a Democratic pollster who does work in Florida, argued, however, that a Crist bid would almost certainly be regarded as "blatant political self preservation" and would, ultimately, bolster Democrats' chances of winning the seat.

"Republicans are doing well in Florida and other states because Independent voters lean toward them as the alternative to Democrats, not because the independents strongly support the Republican," explained Beattie. "Crist as an Independent candidate would provide the alternative for them to tell the major parties 'pox on both your houses.'"

All that said, it's important to remember that the Florida primary isn't until August 24 -- meaning that Crist has five months to re-frame the race in a way in which he can win it.

And, over the past month or so he -- and his campaign -- have grown increasingly aggressive in attacking Rubio. The latest example? Crist's seeming suggestion that Rubio charged not only a $130 haircut but also a back waxing to a state party credit card during his time as speaker of the state House. (And, no, we didn't think we would ever write that last sentence. Ever.)

Crist communications director Andrea Saul insisted that the only people talking about the "fantasy" of the governor running as an independent are the Rubio forces who "realize that as the truth comes out about Rubio's use of public office for private gain, he has as much chance of winning as Charlie Crist spending more than $20 bucks on a haircut."

Rhetoric aside, it's clear that the Crist team is going to make an all-out assault on Rubio to try and ding his image as a national conservative icon over the next few months. And, Crist has the financial wherewithal to conduct such a carpet-bombing campaign.

At the end of 2009, Crist showed more than $7.5 million in the bank -- a staggering total that speaks to his continued fundraising strength in the face of an increasingly difficult road to the Republican nomination. Rubio, by contrast, had $2.1 million in the bank at the end of last year.

(Rubio allies, in a memo set to be released later this week, argue that the financial gap is actually far smaller as Crist has raised a considerable amount of money that can only be spent in a general election. According to their calculations, Crist has $4.7 million to spend on the primary to Rubio's $1.95 milllon.)

For Crist to drastically change the dynamic of the race, he needs to get up on television soon with ads that define Rubio to the average Republican primary voter before Rubio can define himself fully.

The x-factor that hovers over all of this "will he or won't he" chatter is that Crist has made no secret of his desire to wind up on a national ticket some time in the relatively near future -- did you think that endorsement of John McCain in the 2008 Florida primary was just for kicks? -- and running as an independent (or even seriously entertaining the possibility) would essentially foreclose any chance of him being the presidential or vice presidential nominee for the GOP.

The calculation that Crist must make before the state's April 30 filing deadline is whether he believes he can win as a Republican or whether he wants to try and extend his political career by running as an independent.

Would he take a hit if he switched to an independent bid? Absolutely. Would it be better than abruptly ending his political career with a loss in a race that he once led by 50+ points? Absolutely.